Everywhere we see news about the Ebola situation: on Friday, August
8th, the World Health Organization declared a global public health
emergency. Now, before you panic, there are 6 things you need to
understand about the disease, this situation, and how to best protect
yourself.
1. Ebola is only contagious once symptoms have set in
A person is only able to spread Ebola to another once they themselves have started showing symptoms
(fever, joint and muscle pains, weakness, stomach pains, vomiting,
diarrhea), which relatively quickly develop into internal bleeding. If
you are dealing with healthy, happy people: none of them can give you
Ebola.
2. Ebola can only be transmitted through bodily secretions: it is not airborne
Ebola virus
Despite the frequently misinterpreted results of a recent study published in Nature:
Ebola is not airborne. The study found that pigs were able to give
monkeys Ebola despite no physical contact (known as droplet
transmission), but as the study itself says: pigs are exceptionally more
effective at transmitting aerosol droplets than other species. The
same study failed to show airborne virus transmission between monkeys,
only finding that pigs could infect monkeys through aerosols. Unlike the
flu (influenza A),
which has a viral shell (capsid) that looks a lot like pollen:
maximizing airborne infection and transmission, Ebola is shaped a lot
like a snake (which, as we all know, cannot really fly). This does not
mean airborne transmission between people is impossible, just that it is
very unlikely and attempts to show this mechanism in laboratory trials
have failed.
To reduce any possibility of contact with the disease, it is thus
advisable to avoid contact with the sweat, blood, or other secretions of
people who may have come in contact with the disease. Airline travel is
not particularly dangerous, which is why the World Health Organization
has not advised airlines to stop flying to affected nations.
3. Ebola does not kill 90% of the infected
Although this figure is often quoted, it is actually a maximum
instead of an average. The average infection-to-death ratio of Ebola is actually roughly 60%.
Keep in mind that it has thus far broken out in nations with lower
health and hygiene standards (and within which many individuals take the
dead home to prepare them for burial), and that these circumstances
increase both the number of fatalities, as well as the rate of
infection.
The best way to protect yourself from this illness is to maintain a
good baseline: keep your immune system and your body healthy. You can do
this as simply as by eating well, sleeping sufficiently, remaining
hydrated, and not stressing your body too much.
4. Ebola did not come from a lab
Ebola is a member of the filoviridae family of viruses, of which the
Marburg virus and Cuevavirus are also members. Humans are not their
primary hosts, which is evident in their high lethality: a virus exists
to reproduce and not to kill its host. The filoviridae (or thread like
viruses) likely originate in bats, which do not display the intense symptoms we associate with the diseases.
The Marbug virus was first found in the 1960s, and was in fact
weaponized by the Soviet Union. Near the end of the Cold War, a Soviet
researcher was accidentally infected, and although at least one person died,
the disease failed to cause any epidemic. Other infections from
laboratories also occurred (a few in Europe), and none of these resulted
in massive infections or mass panic. Even after weaponization for over
10 years, someone’s accidental infection did not lead to mass deaths.
If the government or any rogue organization was trying to create a
bio-weapon to wipe out humanity, you can almost bet on them using a
variant of influenza A with a modified lytic/lysogenic cycle to maximize
virus transmission (perhaps modifying regulatory elements from herpes),
so as to infect without necessarily killing or exposing the host during
the infectious period and instead maximize fatality by attacking
(activating the lytic cycle) during weakened states. If you think there
are people smart and determined enough to create a virus to thin the population, they would most likely not opt for modifying filoviridae.
5. Ebola is very dangerous for primates
Avoiding infection, and being informed about current risk areas, is
smart even when dealing with viruses half as deadly as Ebola. Humans
have had especially little evolutionary contact with members of the
filoviridae family, and thus are not well suited to dealing with the
disease. Although your odds of contact with the disease are very low
unless you are a doctor or aid worker, you should also be aware that
your odds of dying (if you get infected) from it are under 50%, if you
are taking care of your body by sleeping enough, remaining hydrated,
eating well, and avoiding excess stress.
6. A global Ebola pandemic is very unlikely
Again, Ebola is not airborne. Its own transmissability and further
evolution is hindered by both its lethality and quick onset of symptoms.
Because the disease is only communicable when the symptoms are present,
it is not that difficult to avoid contact with the secretions of the
infected. Even though the mutation of rate of the current strain is much higher than expected: it is not capable of changing in ways to make it truly airborne.
There is absolutely nothing to panic about, especially if you live in
the first world. Developed nations have the medical infrastructure to
prevent a real pandemic. The Marburg virus (Ebola’s “sister”) broke out
in Marburg, Frankfurt, and Belgrade in the 1960s after researchers were
accidentally exposed to infected grivet (a kind of primate) tissue, resulting in several deaths but no major outbreaks. None of the many Ebola outbreaks
have ever resulted in even close to a global pandemic. As mentioned
earlier in the text, Soviet efforts to weaponize it led to at least one
case of accidental infection, which also failed to cause any pandemic.
This current epidemic is being fueled by insufficient information
available in affected regions and contact with the dead post-mortem. No
matter where you are: if you are well-informed and reasonably cautious, you can almost certainly avoid infection or death. Just like every outbreak of filoviridae: this too shall pass without any global pandemic.
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